The post-war global order that governed international commerce for nearly eight decades is fracturing. Trade wars, regional conflicts, the rise of emerging market powers and the growing threat of politically motivated violence against businesses are no longer distant concerns; they are reshaping how and where exhibitions happen right now.
Jonathan Wood, Principal at Control Risks, unpacked what this new era means for exhibition organizers and the businesses that rely on them during his presentation at last year’s CEIR Predict Conference. In his presentation, Navigating the Geopolitical Terrain: Impacts on Business and Exhibitions, he delivered insights that every industry leader needed to hear.
Let’s examine some of the essential takeaways from his session as we prepare to welcome a new roster of expert speakers who will help us make sense of an even more volatile and opportunity-rich global landscape at the upcoming CEIR Predict Conference on 10-11 September 2026.
INSIGHT #1: Globalization is giving way to fragmentation.
The open, predictable international trade environment that once made cross-border exhibitions seamless is being replaced by a patchwork of competing national interests, protectionist policies and regional alliance of which the exhibitions and events industry is not immune.
- The U.S. now enforces its highest tariffs in a century, prompting both allies and rivals to diversify trade relationships and seek alternative markets.
- Companies must navigate an increasingly complex web of data protection laws, trade restrictions and industrial policies that vary dramatically by region.
- Alliances and geographic proximity are becoming the primary drivers of trade growth, shifting the map of where exhibition opportunities actually exist.
TAKEAWAY: Understanding where the new trade corridors are forming is now a prerequisite for building a viable international events portfolio.
INSIGHT #2: Middle powers are rewriting the rules of engagement.
The influence of the U.S., China and Europe is being diluted as major emerging economies assert themselves on the global stage, creating both new exhibition markets and new strategic complexities for organizers.
- Countries like Turkey, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and South Africa are rapidly expanding their share of global economic activity and pushing to revise international systems to reflect their interests.
- Market opportunities are shifting toward these emerging economies, where tailored engagement strategies that account for local political and regulatory contexts are essential.
- The era of a single, unified global business playbook is over. Success now requires agility and proactive planning across a far more diverse set of markets.
TAKEAWAY: For exhibition organizers, this multipolar shift signals a wealth of new growth opportunities for those willing to invest in understanding these markets deeply.
INSIGHT #3: Supply chains and trade routes are being redrawn.
As countries and companies pull back from overreliance on single-country supply chains – particularly those centered on China – trade is becoming increasingly regionalized, creating a more fragmented but navigable landscape for exhibition professionals who adapt early.
- Geographic proximity and political alliances are now the dominant forces shaping which trade relationships grow, directly influencing where exhibitions can thrive and attract international participation.
- Companies must contend with a patchwork of regulatory regimes and heightened supply chain scrutiny, requiring more agile vendor and logistics strategies for cross-border events.
- The predictability of common standards and stable trade relationships is giving way to a multipolar and transactional system, making flexibility and resilience core competencies for any global exhibition business.
TAKEAWAY: Those who map the new regional trade flows and align their event strategies accordingly will be best positioned to identify emerging markets before their competitors do.
INSIGHT #4: Scenario planning is the new competitive advantage.
With regional conflicts erupting more frequently – from Ukraine to the Middle East to the Korean Peninsula – and hybrid warfare tactics like cyberattacks and infrastructure sabotage becoming standard tools of geopolitical competition, reactive crisis management is no longer sufficient.
- Leading organizations are forming dedicated geopolitical risk teams charged with continuous monitoring, scenario planning and stress-testing for low-probability but high-impact “black swan” events.
- Proactive signal tracking such as monitoring regulatory shifts, troop movements and the frequency of trade restrictions, enables organizations to detect emerging threats before they become crises.
- Embedding scenario-driven methodologies into business continuity strategies equips teams to respond swiftly to everything from regulatory upheaval to sudden regional conflicts.
TAKEAWAY: The organizations that anticipate geopolitical shocks, rather than simply react to them, will be the ones that capture opportunities while their competitors scramble to recover.
Don’t Miss Out on this Year’s Predictions!
Sessions like Jonathan Wood’s are exactly why CEIR Predict is the annual gathering that executive leaders can’t afford to miss. Get the geopolitical intelligence, risk frameworks and peer conversations that will help you lead with clarity in an increasingly volatile world because at CEIR Predict, the industry’s leading strategists and risk advisors don’t just describe the threats on the horizon – they show you how to turn uncertainty into opportunity.
