Industry Performance Down 11.1% from 2019 Levels, Economic Conditions and Inflation Overtake Policy Concerns as Top Challenge

Today, the Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR) released its Q3 2025 Index Report, revealing a modest pullback for the exhibition industry as broader macroeconomic headwinds intensified during the quarter. The CEIR Total Index registered 11.1% below Q3 2019 levels, a negligible difference compared to Q3 2024, when a 10.7% shortfall was recorded.

In looking at historical patterns, since 2023, the third quarter has been the weakest performing quarter each year. The first half of 2025 produced comparatively solid results, and even with the recent dip, the industry remains in a healthier position than it was two years ago. This suggests while recovery has paused, the underlying trajectory remains intact, and the industry appears to be settling into a more stable, though subdued environment.

Key Exhibition Industry Findings

Exhibition Industry Pulls Back Slightly, Though More Events Surpass Pre-Pandemic Benchmarks

While the exhibition industry experienced a 2.7 percentage point decline from Q2 2025, bright spots emerged as 39.3% of events in the Index sample exceeded their pre-pandemic CEIR Total Index performance, up from 37.3% in Q3 2024. This suggests continued progress for individual events even as overall industry momentum eased during the quarter.

Exhibitors Show Strongest Relative Performance

Among the four components of the Total Index, Exhibitors demonstrated the strongest recovery with only a 5.0% shortfall compared to Q3 2019, followed by Net Square Feet at -8.3%. Attendees lagged at -12.3%, reflecting tighter corporate travel budgets, while Real Revenues faced the largest challenge at -18.2% below 2019 levels, marking a continued weakening trend since Q1 2025.

Economic Concerns Replace Federal Policies as Primary Performance Factor

Survey results revealed a significant shift from Q2, with the state of the economy emerging as the most negatively perceived factor affecting event performance in Q3. Inflation and the geopolitical landscape also rose in prominence, reflecting heightened uncertainty in global and domestic markets. While federal government actions remain relevant, organizers are now viewing challenges through a broader macroeconomic lens.

Event Cancellations Remain Low

The cancellation rate for in-person events dropped to 0.5% in Q3, down from 1.5% in Q2 2025, indicating that events stayed on the calendar even as underlying market conditions softened.

Key Economic Outlook Findings

Moderate Growth Expected Despite Recent Government Shutdown

The U.S. economy is projected to deliver moderate growth in 2026, with real GDP growth revised upward to 2.4%. The recent federal government shutdown is estimated to have reduced Q4 2025 annualized GDP growth by approximately 0.8 percentage points, though a partial rebound is expected in Q1 2026.

Labor Market Softens Amid Policy Uncertainty

The unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in October 2025 as nonfarm payrolls contracted by 85,000, reflecting elevated business uncertainty and federal-sector layoffs. However, private-sector hiring showed resilience with modest gains of 40,000..

Inflation Expected to Moderate

Inflation is projected to average 2.7% in 2026, slightly below consensus forecasts, as temporary tariff effects diminish and services-sector inflation moderates. Recent trade agreements with China are expected to reduce cost pressures along supply chains, supporting a more moderate inflation environment.

Federal Interest Rates Continue Gradual Decline

The Federal Reserve policy rate is expected to close 2025 at 3.9%, down from 4.4% earlier in the year, while the 10-year Treasury yield is projected to settle near 4.4% by year-end, reflecting the Fed’s cautious balancing act between containing inflation and supporting economic activity.

“The Q3 2025 results reflect an exhibition industry navigating a complex transition from policy-focused concerns to broader macroeconomic challenges,” said CEIR Vice President of Research Nancy Drapeau, IPC. “While we’ve seen a modest pullback in overall performance, the increase in events surpassing pre-pandemic levels demonstrates that many organizers are successfully adapting to current conditions. The shift toward economic and inflationary concerns underscores the need for strategic planning that accounts for both market dynamics and policy influences.”

“Despite the headwinds reflected in Q3, our industry’s foundation remains resilient,” added IAEE President and CEO Marsha Flanagan, M.Ed., CEM. “The relatively strong exhibitor participation, with only a 5.0% shortfall from 2019, shows that companies continue to see value in face-to-face engagement. As we look toward 2026 with expectations of moderate economic growth and easing inflation, the exhibition industry is positioned to gradually strengthen if broader economic conditions remain supportive.”

The report also highlighted that consumer spending bifurcation continues to impact the industry, with high-income consumers driving spending growth while lower-income households face greater economic strain – a dynamic that influences both attendee participation and exhibitor investment decisions.

Access the CEIR Index Dashboard here to download the complete Q3 Index report containing additional insights on exhibition industry performance in Q3 and other macroeconomic factors impacting on the industry now and moving forward. The report is free to IAEE members and costs $150 for non-members.

About CEIR
The official research division of the International Association of Exhibitions and Events® (IAEE), the Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR) advances the growth, awareness and value of exhibitions and other face-to-face marketing events by producing and delivering knowledge-based research tools. These tools enable stakeholder organizations to enhance their ability to meet current and emerging customer needs, improve business performance and strengthen their competitive position. Visit ceir.iaee.com for more information.

About IAEE
Trusted since 1928, IAEE provides quality and value to its members through leadership, service, education and strong relationships. IAEE is the world’s largest association of the exhibitions and events industry, with members including show organizers, exhibitors and exhibition suppliers. More than 20,000 exhibitions and buyer-seller events worldwide are organized by IAEE members, and the organization advocates for face-to-face exhibitions and events as the primary medium for business development and growth. IAEE provides relevant, timely and innovative education to its members and the industry. IAEE recognizes its strategic partners: 4imprint, Convention News Television (CNTV), eShow, Freeman, GES | onPeak, Grit Productions and Expositions, IMEX, New Orleans & Company, New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, Risk Strategies Company | Buttine Insurance, Snöball and Swapcard. Visit www.iaee.com for more information.

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